Weather Forecast for Gatwick

[nking]

I was thinking of using the metar data download from "WeatherUnderground” ( example below 7-Day Forecast: London Gatwick
Updated: 1:00 AM BST on March 31, 2010) but having studied the detail for the last week I am really surprised at their very conservative forecast!! Every day the forecast has been between 20 - 30% chance of rain. Given what most of us have experienced in the UK it should have been "chance of it being dry"!! The only part that is accurate is “Current Conditions” which they seem to get right.

I have a client who is an air traffic controller at Gatwick and he said "the weather forecasts they get are useless". I wonder who the airports use for their forecasts; it certainly doesn’t look like the Met Office?

Wednesday
Chance of Rain. Partly Cloudy. High: 41 °F / 5 °C . Wind SW 24 mph / 39 km/h . 30% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 0.19 in / 4.76 mm).
Wednesday Night
Chance of Rain. Scattered Clouds. Low: 32 °F / 0 °C . Wind WNW 20 mph / 32 km/h . 30% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 0.02 in / 0.52 mm). Windchill: 28 °F / -2 °C .

Thursday
Chance of Rain. Scattered Clouds. High: 50 °F / 10 °C . Wind WSW 17 mph / 28 km/h . 20% chance of precipitation (trace amounts).
Thursday Night
Chance of Rain. Scattered Clouds. Low: 35 °F / 2 °C . Wind SSW 13 mph / 21 km/h . 20% chance of precipitation (trace amounts). Windchill: 30 °F / -1 °C .

Friday
Chance of Rain. Scattered Clouds. Low: 37 °F / 3 °C . Wind SSW 15 mph / 25 km/h . 30% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 0.16 in / 4.11 mm). Windchill: 33 °F / 1 °C .

[RCE]

I noticed that the forecast is wildly different to the model data, seems better to use the model and do the forecast yourself.

Looks to me as though http://www.metcheck.com use similar or the same model as wunderground but come up with generally more realistic forecasts.

[Gina]

All the forecasts seem to predict horrible weather for the next few days including Easter At 200m it seems we were just below the snow line - they had it bad in other parts of Devon, particularly the moors. We had just a few flakes of wet snow this morning. Much worse though is Scotland, Ireland and northern England

[Hillbilly]

I've implemented the WU Forecast page too. We're monitoring accuracy at the moment. I was horrified to see the number of days looming ahead with chance of rain, but its been accurate so far. We'll continue to review it but we've been showing 30 or 40% chance of rain on the days that it has rained. Where do their forecasts come from btw?

[nking]

Where do their forecasts come from btw?

I would like to know too, I can't believe anyone in the area the forecast covers didn't get rain

[Hillbilly]

For info, we continue to find WU very accurate on forecast temperatures - and chance of rain (ie zero).