Will it or won't it..

[Mapantz]

.. make 40°C in the South East of England

In all my years looking at weather models, I have never seen so many runs show 40°C+ before. To start with, it was played down, probably due to the media causing panic. However, I suspect the pro's aren't ruling it out.

38.7°C is definitely under threat!

[watsonm]

Well from a selfish perspective I hope it ends in a thunderstorm so I can checkout my newly installed WH57!!

[broadstairs]

Highest I've recorded here was 33.2 in June 2019 in 15 years. It is rare here to get such high temps as we are on the coast. Looks like current forecasts have the high temps now predicted for next weekend!

Stuart

[AndyKF650]

Well in sunny Gorey Jersey the top temp today was 29.8C @16:02. We are close to the moderating sea so the high inland temperatures are not really going to happen.

Looking back at my record max temps 29.8C does not even show on my top 10 records with a max of 36.4C in August 2019

[RayProudfoot]

Max of 30.1°C at 15:07 up here in Cheshire. Still 22.6°C as I type this at 23:00.

My all-time max of 35.4°C could go on Sunday or Monday. Bit early to have a high confidence level.

[freddie]

.. make 40°C in the South East of England

In all my years looking at weather models, I have never seen so many runs show 40°C+ before. To start with, it was played down, probably due to the media causing panic. However, I suspect the pro's aren't ruling it out.

38.7°C is definitely under threat!

Looking more and more likely that the record will go either Monday or (more likely) Tuesday. Potential for a 40C temperature is there.

[Mapantz]

Looking more and more likely that the record will go either Monday or (more likely) Tuesday. Potential for a 40C temperature is there.

Any ideas if the Met are considering a red warning closer to the time?

[RayProudfoot]

Any ideas if the Met are considering a red warning closer to the time?

I did wonder what would qualify as a red given they're talking about a possible new high temp. I can't help but feel the nanny state is thriving.

[freddie]

Looking more and more likely that the record will go either Monday or (more likely) Tuesday. Potential for a 40C temperature is there.

Any ideas if the Met are considering a red warning closer to the time?

Definitely being thought about.

[freddie]

Any ideas if the Met are considering a red warning closer to the time?

I did wonder what would qualify as a red given they're talking about a possible new high temp. I can't help but feel the nanny state is thriving.

The warning system is impact-based, so will be influenced by external (to the Met Office) agencies providing advice on diverse impacts such as pressure on the NHS, rails buckling, roads melting, additional electrical load due to Aircon etc., heat stress affecting essential personnel (military, police and other emergency services). The Met Office receives advice on impact levels, and the result is the warning.

Nothing to do with the Met Office being overly alarmist or nanny states, everything to do with the impact the weather will have on various services.

Warnings are issued based on a framework agreed with various government and other agencies, with the well-being of the general population its focus.

[RayProudfoot]

Freddie, if it was forecast to extend for several days I could understand the need to plan and for the public to be warned. But we’re talking about 48-60 hours and then the supply of the really hot air is stopped with the kink in the jet stream moving.

Most older people have gone through these heatwaves before and been fine. It’s probably only those in care homes that need extra care and they’ll get it from the staff.

[Mapantz]

Not only the daytime maximum to worry about, but also the minimum. 30°C at midnight is possible in some areas, and not dropping below 25°C for many. We're in uncharted territory with this plume.

[freddie]

Freddie, if it was forecast to extend for several days I could understand the need to plan and for the public to be warned. But we’re talking about 48-60 hours and then the supply of the really hot air is stopped with the kink in the jet stream moving.

Most older people have gone through these heatwaves before and been fine. It’s probably only those in care homes that need extra care and they’ll get it from the staff.

True, but it only takes one day for impacts like buckled rails. Also, no-one has gone through temperatures of 40 in this country yet.

[freddie]

Not only the daytime maximum to worry about, but also the minimum. 30°C at midnight is possible in some areas, and not dropping below 25°C for many. We're in uncharted territory with this plume.

Correct. Also, it's the scale and not the duration that's important with this one. Thankfully it is cooler today. It's going to be an interesting few days, but uncomfortable at the same time.

[Mapantz]

There she is!

It'll be interesting to see if anyone reaches 40°C that frequents this forum..