Cumulus Support

The track of this low pressure system is yet to be determined, however, potential for some of the strongest winds since the winter of 2013/2014.

Here's the Met Office' UKV model showing SLP

Quite a pressure gradient! Some of the other models are churning out some pretty crazy charts. I'd expect amber warnings in some areas by Thursday, and I wouldn't rule out a red warning either.

Yep, amber warning nailed on, but won't be issued until closer to Friday when a much better idea of area expected to be most affected, and potential gust speeds too. It is looking to be a Shapiro-Keyser (http://www.eumetrain.org/satmanu/shapir ... index.html) development with potential for a Sting Jet on its SW or S flank. Certainly one to watch, and potentially the strongest winds since 2014 for parts of England and Wales.

Even though I’m close to the potential centre of the low I’d be surprised if my all-time wind record was broken.

It stands at 65mph when a squall line passed through this part of the world on the morning of 9 Feb 2020. Those can bring very destructive gusts as we discovered when ridge tiles were dislodged, bins blown into the street and fence panels removed.

http://www.cheadlehulmeweather.co.uk/record.htm

I wouldn't rule anything out at this stage, Ray.

A fair amount of model divergence at the moment - ICON vs ECM as an example;
ECM: Close to 100mph on the Welsh coast with 70 to 80mph across the Midlands & parts northern England.
ICON: Close to 130mph down to the Southwest of England. I wonder if that's eluding to a possible sting-jet which freddie mentions?!

ICON does have a tendency to throw out some extreme wind speeds when modelling storms, though.

Mapantz wrote: ↑Mon 14 Feb 2022 11:34 pm I wouldn't rule anything out at this stage, Ray.

My previous record was 54mph so that squall line was quite vicious. I just hope there’s no structural damage.

Ouch!

It will be interesting indeed, but I think The Netherlands can top that. We will have two storms in succession: 1) Thursday morning roughly from midnight to noon and 2) Friday roughly from noon until midnight (see image). The second storm will be heaviest with wind gusts up to 120 km/h. On top of all this, the wind is west to north-west and it will be spring tide. It will be the windiest two days since I moved here. No doubt my wind records will be shattered.

[EDIT 16/2 10u]: The winds will be SW to W (N when dying out) and the peak of the storm will be at low tide. That is all not too bad.

HansR wrote: ↑Tue 15 Feb 2022 10:00 pm It will be interesting indeed, but I think The Netherlands can top that. We will have two storms in succession: 1) Thursday morning roughly from midnight to noon and 2) Friday roughly from noon until midnight (see image). The second storm will be heaviest with wind gusts up to 120 km/h. On top of all this, the wind is west to north-west and it will be spring tide. It will be the windiest two days since I moved here. No doubt my wind records will be shattered.

Have a look at the chart for the SW of England - 157km/h

Although, GFS does overcook wind speeds.

The UKV has a resolution of 1.5KM grid squares, its a very good model.

Storm Dudley cold front passed through in the last hour. Nothing exceptional. 42mph gust.

Met Office warning gusts in the SW could reach 100mph with Eunice on Friday. A rare storm.

RayProudfoot wrote: ↑Wed 16 Feb 2022 4:55 pm Storm Dudley cold front passed through in the last hour. Nothing exceptional. 42mph gust.

59 mph (51 knots) here, so pretty lively. The wind may get stronger for a time for you this evening, Ray, but I'm unsure of your site exposure.

RayProudfoot wrote: ↑Wed 16 Feb 2022 4:55 pmMet Office warning gusts in the SW could reach 100mph with Eunice on Friday. A rare storm.

Yes, likely the most powerful storm in the south since 2014. Slight northward shift in the strongest belt of winds on the latest model run, so SW Wales likely to get the biggest battering. Winds in Cheshire Friday morning likely to be a fair bit stronger than they have been this afternoon.

freddie wrote: ↑Wed 16 Feb 2022 5:17 pm 59 mph (51 knots) here, so pretty lively. The wind may get stronger for a time for you this evening, Ray, but I'm unsure of your site exposure.

Yes, likely the most powerful storm in the south since 2014. Slight northward shift in the strongest belt of winds on the latest model run, so SW Wales likely to get the biggest battering. Winds in Cheshire Friday morning likely to be a fair bit stronger than they have been this afternoon.

Anemometer is 30ft up with pole lashed to chimney stack. I’m 35 miles from the coast. I recall a weather bomb a few years ago. That’s a drop >24hPa in 24 hours. My Feb low is 963hPa. Not sure if that’s at risk as this low is deepening rapidly.

I’m expecting gusts >50mph.

The classic fractured cold front ...

OK, Dudley has passed here - NE Netherlands - with its peak in the early morning of 17 February. I registered a max average of 56.3 km/h (35 mph or 15.6 m/s) with a highest gust of 120 km/h which is quite strong and maybe caused by turbulence because of buildings (50 - 100m distance). The observations do compare well with the official KNMI station (at 17 km as the crow flies) and other stations around. It was clear to the sound of it that it really was really blowing. Nevertheless, I expect more tomorrow. Or as was said on Dutch national TV: Dudley was a bit windy but Eunice will probably be a storm to remember.

120km/h is 75mph. That’s 10mph higher than my record.

And 90+ mph gusts expected tomorrow.