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Latest Cumulus MX V4 release 4.0.1 (build 4023) - 16 May 2024
(Note that 4.1.0 (build 4024) - 05 June 2024 remains available, but usage of this version is not recommended - particularly for Davis stations - and the included utility in this distribution for migrating to v4 is known to contain errors affecting conversion of dayfile.txt)
Latest Cumulus MX V3 release 3.28.6 (build 3283) - 21 March 2024
Legacy Cumulus 1 release 1.9.4 (build 1099) - 28 November 2014
(a patch is available for 1.9.4 build 1099 that extends the date range of drop-down menus to 2030)
Download the Software (Cumulus MX / Cumulus 1 and other related items) from the Wiki
What's your station's Average Temperature?
-
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What's your station's Average Temperature?
After a very short discussion elsewhere on this forum this morning I decided to post a histogram / graph showing the average temperature for whole years only for my station in North Cheshire, England. I even used a base of 9 rather than 0 to accentuate any differences.
I'll leave you to decide if any trend is evident. It would be nice to see this from other stations around the world. Excel would do nicely although I'm sure there are free alternatives available.
For the record I see a levelling out over recent years. Does that make me a denier?
I'll leave you to decide if any trend is evident. It would be nice to see this from other stations around the world. Excel would do nicely although I'm sure there are free alternatives available.
For the record I see a levelling out over recent years. Does that make me a denier?
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- philpugh
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Re: What's your station's Average Temperature?
This is for my longest running station. We are on a slight East facing slope and this seems to affect the temperature noticably. We are on the edge of what is known as Antrobus Moss - as it's name suggests a damp area!
As with Ray's there is no noticable trend.
As with Ray's there is no noticable trend.
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Phil Pugh
GW1100 + WH65/WH57/WH31;GW1100 + WS68/WH40A (also with HP25xx console); GW2001 WittBoy
CumulusMX V4 / CUtils V7
Raspberry Pi 5 64bit
https://goosegate.uk/
GW1100 + WH65/WH57/WH31;GW1100 + WS68/WH40A (also with HP25xx console); GW2001 WittBoy
CumulusMX V4 / CUtils V7
Raspberry Pi 5 64bit
https://goosegate.uk/
- HansR
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Re: What's your station's Average Temperature?
This way of expressing yourself - some passive aggressiveness - kind of answers your own question: yes you are a denier.RayProudfoot wrote: ↑Thu 16 May 2024 1:05 pm For the record I see a levelling out over recent years. Does that make me a denier?
But let's try to be factual:
- Please look at this page by NASA
- This shows a (global!) increase of 1 degree Celsius since 1970. So in 53 years that means an average of 0.0188 degree Celsius/year.
- If you look at the chart you see major fluctuations on a global scale between years which go beyond that increase per year. So locally that difference might even be larger. What is missing is the statistics here.
- To argue well, you would need to do some statistics to at least 4 decimals on the average per year
- In the four full years of my own station you also see an almost flat line but the values are: 2020: 10.79 °C; 2023: 11.00 °C which is 0.0525 °C/year (please set cursor on the line points to see the value). And I refuse to draw conclusions from that other than that visual inspection does not do math. Had the series been longer - e.g. > 10 yrs - I might have seen that as a local confirmation of what is happening.
- You have significant fluctuation in your chart so it may be whatever may influence amateur weather stations but I won't take that into the argument assuming that weather amateurs going into a discussion on the basis of their data do anything to get as close to reality as possible. But if we seriously start discussing, that would be something to discuss first.
- You argue on the basis of a chart which the reader must visually inspect. Visual inspection of a chart like that is not the best means to determine something like Climate Change which has a resolution of 0,01 °C which is much smaller that what we can see on the chart.
And please note: my post on the temperature sum does not take the average but the year sum as an argument as that is much easier to interpret. Compare this e.g. to the arctic ice area on a yearly basis where the last 12 years minimum are all below the -2 sigma value ... anyway, look at it yourself.
But even then, that would argue only on the amount of change in that series (11 years in San Sebastian) in that location, that it fits the bill of climate change. It could never serve as PROOF for climate change.
And you guess right: I am not a denier. But I am not a believer either. I just like numbers versus what e.g. NASA says. Climate Change is not about belief or denial. It is about numbers and the 'fun' of seeing that in your own backyard (assuming you are not too sheltered).
[Edit:] I corrected some errors on 17/5/24 @07:00
Last edited by HansR on Fri 17 May 2024 5:01 am, edited 3 times in total.
Hans
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4023+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4023+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
- HansR
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Re: What's your station's Average Temperature?
I now see @philpugh's post which is somewhat better (scale of the y-axis) but still could do with some statistics.
He does have that (see this chart), which shows (2013 - 2023, is 11 years) an increase from 9.70 - 10.65 (= 0.95 °C) which leads to 0.0864 °C/year.
He does have that (see this chart), which shows (2013 - 2023, is 11 years) an increase from 9.70 - 10.65 (= 0.95 °C) which leads to 0.0864 °C/year.
Hans
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4023+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4023+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
- mcrossley
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Re: What's your station's Average Temperature?
Mine with a linear trend line added, it's too short a period to be meaningful.
And the average temperatures for North West England met stations since 1884, again with a linear trend line
And the average temperatures for North West England met stations since 1884, again with a linear trend line
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- HansR
- Posts: 6089
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Re: What's your station's Average Temperature?
I think it is meaningful but not conclusive (as proof for climate change).
Or do I misinterpret the word meaningful?
Hans
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4023+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4023+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
-
- Posts: 3408
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Re: What's your station's Average Temperature?
@philpugh, I think as long as the equipment hasn’t moved your records are fine. I’m surrounded on three sides by houses and I’m estimating my temps are around 0.7°C higher as a result. Different but not wrong.
@HansR, I don’t know how you can deduce from my post I’m a denier. I just posted a graph with just an observation that recent temps have levelled out. How can I deduce temps to four decimal places when the Davis is probably accurate to +/- 0.5°C?
I don’t have the inclination to trawl through other websites. But using my own common sense I would say my area is warming up as we now get very little snow or really hard frosts. You don’t need to record weather stats to work that out. The water pipe in my garage to my washing machine last froze in 2010 and in 2022 the temperature hit 100°F for the first time.
@mcrossley, I’ll compare our averages in the next few days. I did note when I used the linear trend it was similar to yours. The one I used seemed closer to actuality.
@HansR, I don’t know how you can deduce from my post I’m a denier. I just posted a graph with just an observation that recent temps have levelled out. How can I deduce temps to four decimal places when the Davis is probably accurate to +/- 0.5°C?
I don’t have the inclination to trawl through other websites. But using my own common sense I would say my area is warming up as we now get very little snow or really hard frosts. You don’t need to record weather stats to work that out. The water pipe in my garage to my washing machine last froze in 2010 and in 2022 the temperature hit 100°F for the first time.
@mcrossley, I’ll compare our averages in the next few days. I did note when I used the linear trend it was similar to yours. The one I used seemed closer to actuality.
- mcrossley
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Re: What's your station's Average Temperature?
Meaningful in a global warming sense, it shows my temperatures have been generally rising since 2010, but that is a very short period.
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Re: What's your station's Average Temperature?
If you’re able counting the number of air frosts and days where the temp exceeded an appropriate level for each year might reveal something.
- mcrossley
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Re: What's your station's Average Temperature?
My air frosts are here: https://weather.wilmslowastro.com/graph ... #frostByYr
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Re: What's your station's Average Temperature?
Definitely a downward trend.mcrossley wrote: ↑Thu 16 May 2024 5:54 pm My air frosts are here: https://weather.wilmslowastro.com/graph ... #frostByYr
- De Hout
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Re: What's your station's Average Temperature?
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