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Latest Cumulus MX release v3.0.2 build 3052 - 13 September 2019.
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Cumulusutils

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kocher
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Re: Cumulusutils

Post by kocher » Fri 27 Sep 2019 10:29 am

good morning Hans

Thank you for your clarification ... but I'm not sure yet.

This is the configuration in my "cumulusutils.ini":

Code: Select all

[pwsFWI]
FireImage = true
ResultFormat = Beteljuice
Should I add something?

Simply by setting the number for the ini-parameter Analysis (is in the ini-file already, default value is 30) larger than 30. Note that it also creates an pwsFWIanalysis.csv file with all data in it. If you have any research results by yourself, please share with me or here on the forum.
Best,


Of course, I would like to analyze this data and compare it with the old FWI (The only problem is the difference in the range of the scales):

http://kocher.es/incendio_riesgo.php

http://kocher.es/fwi-hans.php
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pernaczy
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Re: Cumulusutils

Post by pernaczy » Fri 27 Sep 2019 11:33 am

HansR wrote:
Fri 27 Sep 2019 6:57 am
Thanks Piotr for the compliment, appreciate it, and while you're at it, could we try to fix your betelformat?
Hi Hans,
Hi Beteljuice,
Problem solved. (http://www.pogoda-niesiolowice.kaszuby. ... isknew.php The only that had to be done was not to process "pwsFWI.txt" file with "Cumulus".
Many, many thanks to both of you for your help.
Piotr
The day when I have learned something is not the lost one.

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Re: Cumulusutils

Post by HansR » Fri 27 Sep 2019 11:57 am

@pernaczy: That's good!

@kocher: yes, that's all. Apart from that I assume the Analyse is also in your ini? It is not in the code above! If Analyse is NOT in your ini-file, please let me know. That would be surprising because only yesterday you made a fresh install and the ini is automatically created, Analyse should be there with a default value of 30. Change it to whatever value/format you want.

Oh, and with comparing you can't compare the absolute numbers. It's two totally different things. The only thing you really can compare is the relative position of the values. In broad terms: the danger zone qualification. The danger estimation is what it's all about. So you have to estimate the danger boundaries for the FWIcalc and then compare these with the zones of the pwsFWI. Then you can compare values.

The definition of the zones of pwsFWI (at this moment, it may change as result of testing):
0 - 210: green
210 - 350: blue
350 - 490: yellow
490 - 630: orange
630 - : red

Note: I am thinking about a purple zone above red, 'Catastrophic' because that's what they have in Australia (see Phil's site). I am not sure about the limits though, so it is not yet implemented. Everything higher than 630 should be regarded as extreme danger level for the time being. Looking forward to your comparison. Please read my blog about the CBI and the Ångström index... they are bull actually, they contain no information.

So here are my settings, make something similar like this:

Code: Select all

[pwsFWI]
Analyse=90
ResultFormat=Standard
FireImage=false
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl / Cumulus MX 3.0.2 b3052
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meteosangonera
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Re: Cumulusutils

Post by meteosangonera » Fri 27 Sep 2019 1:03 pm

Hi,

Is it normal for my station in southeastern Spain to reach 1121.46 on July 27 ?

I think it's too much, especially regarding the color scale you indicated before.

www.meteosangonera.es/fwi

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Re: Cumulusutils

Post by HansR » Fri 27 Sep 2019 2:40 pm

@meteosangonera :

First of all: extreme high values in the high register (so, above 950/1000 as I see it now, this is not fixed yet) seem normal for a region like yours and july 27 is at hight of summer. But to be honest, I did not expect these to be so high when I started out and had only roughly an idea of the output of the calculations.

In Australia a class has been added above red: purple and they name it catastrophic. Phil's site also has weather like this in summer (now approaching over there). Catastrophic would mean that ignition could be by a spark or a flash of lightning. It is likely I will add that class as well for everything above 950/1000 (those figures are far from definitive yet) and maybe adjust the current classes a bit. That depends also on your fire statistic, if any. Most other fires - in the lower region of the warning levels - have human origins.

NOTE: in my blog on my first evaluation of the algorithm (which I did with an old version of the program and a slightly different algorithm, so different absolute values) I noted the following:
  1. Danger level: LOW: The fuel is wet, no drying has taken place.
  2. Danger level MODERATE: The combination of wind, humidity and temperature favour a drying process which has started.
  3. Danger level: HIGH: The drying process has continued and is basically complete. Little humidity left in litter and surface of wood.
  4. Danger level: VERY HIGH: Last stage of the drying process, fuel has become easily inflammable. Ponds are falling dry.
  5. Danger level: EXTREME: Drying has completed, no moisture left in fuel. Fuel easily inflammable, a spark can ignite it. Almost explosive.
Apparently I overrated the red class.

In your region you had no rain for 68 days(!!) and temperatures are well in the 30 degrees approaching and reaching 40. That means the drying process really is finished. There is no more water to vaporise, vegetation is in survival mode (closed stoma so no water coming from plants), the soil is exhausted and the only moisture around is via air transport. It is difficult to estimate, but I assume the moisture you see is because the wind comes from sea and is not from the soil or the vegetation. The whole play is difficult to assess, but from what I have seen now, everything above combines into extremely high figures for the pwsFWI assessment.

In short: Yes, it surprised me to see those high figures, but they appear to be 'normal' during prolonged dry periods in hot, semi-arid area's.

But now I am interested: were there fires in your region in that period? And if yes: how many, which dates, how large area?
Is there a fire statistic for a circle of 50 - 100 km around you? Could you summarise that in short here?

And a next step: are there other weather stations you know with similar weather and running Cumulus(MX)? Especially semi-arid conditions are interesting. Spread the word!

Thanks for your first analysis.
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Re: Cumulusutils

Post by beteljuice » Fri 27 Sep 2019 4:23 pm

Just the beteljuice musing ....

Wouldn't the predominant vegetation also be a factor in a sustained hot, dry spell ?

eg. grasses, small shrubs(?) would turn to dust (no longer combustible), but trees (especially Pine, Eucalyptus) would still be a highly combustable material ?

... as I say, just the ramblings of the beteljuice ...
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Re: Cumulusutils

Post by meteosangonera » Fri 27 Sep 2019 4:34 pm

Thank you very much for your reply.

The climate of my area is classified as Semi-arid BSk, which explains much of the results I get, (even worse than Phil's ones).

With regard to forest fire statistics, I have been able to collect some data from the decade 2006-2015 for my province. (All areas of my province are less than 100 km from my weather station):
  • Nº fires = 1211 - Of which major fires = 2
  • Affected area = 4222.43 ha (Major fires = 1975.19 ha)
It's all I could find.

I don't personally know anyone in my area who uses Cumulus. But I will make a small search, to see what results I get.

While finding someone who uses Cumulus, I thought you might be interested in a series of weather stations in my province, which give a lot of data related to humidity and other factors with radiation.

I attach a link to this summer's daily data from a station very close to mine. I translated the column headings myself, so they may not be the "exact terms".

https://wetransfer.com/downloads/d0e29c ... 049/75a56e

Keep me informed if it's of interest to you, because there's plenty of data from multiple stations all located in a semi-arid climate.

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Re: Cumulusutils

Post by HansR » Fri 27 Sep 2019 5:52 pm

@Beteljuice:
beteljuice wrote:
Fri 27 Sep 2019 4:23 pm
Wouldn't the predominant vegetation also be a factor in a sustained hot, dry spell ?
eg. grasses, small shrubs(?) would turn to dust (no longer combustible), but trees (especially Pine, Eucalyptus) would still be a highly combustable material ?
But even as the musings or rambling - my English improves ;) - of a beteljuice: yes, the predominant vegetation is definitely a factor: by retaining water or by evaporating it. Grass and small shrubs do not turn to dust. Good healthy forest retains water a long time. Only extreme severe drought will give a higher risk. Vegetation has influence on humidity and as it is slowly dying in the heat it becomes fuel. Grassland plays a heavy role in spreading of the fire (more than crops e.g. vineyards). In the end it is about transport of water from soil/vegetation to the air and transport away from the location. That's what we can measure with the PWS, and that is what my calculations are based upon. I wrote as a starter:
  • Wet wood does not burn easily (if at all);
  • Moisture content of the fuel (wood) is of great importance;
  • Wind does not spark fire but assists drying and is dangerous for propagation;
  • Rain contradicts drying but not immediately;
  • Drying timber in a forest is not a single day event.
And this also holds for Pine and Eucalyptus. That's why I claim my pwsFWI should be valid everywhere where meteorology exists. It might even be useful in the polar circle area where large fires were abundant this year.

@meteosangonera:
Yes it might, though I am not sure what type of climate Phil is in. Definitely on the west side of The Great Divide he told me and that means it looks a lot like your region.
The statistics of the fires does not make it possible to correlate the pwsFWI to the fires. So keep the eyes open (everybody btw ;) ) and make a list of fire, date, surface and pwsFWI value that day value. Thanks anyway even though it is not much. It does say something: the figures over a period of 15 years do not seem too bad. That may be because there are no forests left to burn or the people in the region are so well aware of the danger and watch out very well.

And yes, I am always interested in other data. I do not really analyse them, but I 'read' the data to get an impression of the weather. So I can handle some more, but not all :D Two things which I thought sprang out: the wind is never West in the covered period (which would be a very drying wind in your area) but always from the sea: N, E and S. (Unless the abbreviation N, S and E are Spanish and not English and mean something different). And I saw the evapotraspiration is also recorded. In this context I would like to point to an exchange I had with Phil. I am not a fan of evapotranspiration as a meteorological record. It is a calculation and there is a lot more to say about, than just a figure.

Thnx both for reply.
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl / Cumulus MX 3.0.2 b3052
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Phil23
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Re: Cumulusutils

Post by Phil23 » Fri 27 Sep 2019 8:36 pm

PaulMy wrote:
Thu 26 Sep 2019 3:57 pm
I did install all the Windows 8 updates and that went pretty good.
Hi Paul,

Not 100% sure which OS you have.
Is it the Original Win8 or the 8.1 upgrade they rolled out.
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Re: Cumulusutils

Post by Phil23 » Fri 27 Sep 2019 9:05 pm

beteljuice wrote:
Fri 27 Sep 2019 4:23 pm
Just the beteljuice musing ....

grasses, small shrubs(?) would turn to dust
What I was seeing here a month or so back, which is typical of Winter is the Kikuyu Lawn turning to a "Hay",
as it does & carts everywhere into the house on your feet.

But this year it was extremely dry & combustible.

I do a lot of tinkering & making stuff & this often involves welding in the back yard.
About a month back I was welding up a pump stand & ended up having to resort to having a spray bottle on hand to put out the little spot fires on the lawn created by the welder splatter.

I've seen this ignition in the past, but the burn would never spread more than a few inches.
It was apparent that wat I was seeing that day had no chance of self extinguishing & one patch spread to well over a foot round as I made a 6 foot walk to grab a watering can.
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Re: Cumulusutils

Post by PaulMy » Sat 28 Sep 2019 12:02 am

Phil23 wrote:
Fri 27 Sep 2019 8:36 pm
PaulMy wrote:
Thu 26 Sep 2019 3:57 pm
I did install all the Windows 8 updates and that went pretty good.
Hi Paul,

Not 100% sure which OS you have.
Is it the Original Win8 or the 8.1 upgrade they rolled out.
Hi Phil,
It is still the original Windows 8 on my old Acer desktop weather computer, not the 8.1 upgrade that MS snuck into another Windows 8 laptop I had at that time.

Enjoy,
Paul

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Re: Cumulusutils

Post by pdw112 » Sat 28 Sep 2019 7:47 pm

For me it will not working.

Cumulus 1
Iplace the cumulusutils.exe in the cumulus directory and entered in cumulus internet/external programs:
program: cumulusutils.exe
Param: [pwsFWI] [Top10] [SysInfo]

when the program runs I found only the cumulusutils.log file with this text:

28-9-2019 21:45:18 CumulusUtils : ----------------------------
28-9-2019 21:45:18 CumulusUtils : Entering Main
28-9-2019 21:45:18 CommandLineArgs : starting
28-9-2019 21:45:18 CommandLineArgs : handling arg: [pwsFWI]
28-9-2019 21:45:18 CommandLineArgs : handling arg: [Top10]
28-9-2019 21:45:18 CommandLineArgs : handling arg: [SysInfo]
28-9-2019 21:45:18 CommandLineArgs : End
28-9-2019 21:45:18 CumulusUtils : No Arguments, nothing to do. Exiting.
28-9-2019 21:45:18 CumulusUtils : Exiting Main

What do I wrong

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Re: Cumulusutils

Post by HansR » Sat 28 Sep 2019 8:13 pm

In the README: "NOTE: Square brackets are not part of the parameter, they indicate optionality."

[edit:] but having said that, I believe you are the first who will run CumulusUtils on Windows 7. So, not sure it will run. It failed on an old Win 8.0! Keep me informed.
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Re: Cumulusutils

Post by pernaczy » Sun 29 Sep 2019 8:08 am

Since the beginning I'm running "Cumulusutils" on Win7. No problem (except my lack of knowledge). :D
Piotr
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Re: Cumulusutils

Post by HansR » Sun 29 Sep 2019 8:22 am

Aha @pernaczy! thnx. Having said that, notice that I could not find so fast the recent post of Phil who confirmed all Windows versions. (Sometimes I sit before the computer too long :oops: )
That means that basically all windows and Linux versions are covered. The only OS I have no confirmation of is MacOS, but I am confident it runs.
No more talk about that.
Last edited by HansR on Sun 29 Sep 2019 9:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl / Cumulus MX 3.0.2 b3052
Davis Vantage Pro 2+ / Raspberry Pi 3 Model B Plus Rev 1.3
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