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    Fire Weather, a new approach

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    HansR
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    Re: Fire Weather, a new approach

    Post by HansR » Sun 17 Nov 2019 10:10 pm

    Still breathable air?
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    Phil23
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    Re: Fire Weather, a new approach

    Post by Phil23 » Wed 20 Nov 2019 1:56 am

    HansR wrote:
    Sun 17 Nov 2019 10:10 pm
    Still breathable air?
    It was.
    We're pretty tough in the bush here.

    The odour is noticeable, but not overpowering. I do notice it has a minor trigger on breathing though. Maybe leading to a puff or two of Ventalin a day.

    Just to amuse myself & take a break from the brain wracking a bit at lunch time, I decided to pull some WeatherZone data into Excel.

    This is from their last 24 hours page.
    https://www.weatherzone.com.au/station. ... 18&list=ob
    Just wanted to see what it looked like in graphical form.

    Came up with this.
    Graph.JPG
    Legend.JPG
    Not the Legend does not apply to any colours in the chart.
    Just added it for reference to the scale of 0 to 100+.

    At Mid-day we've hit 45 & typically wind will pick up in the next few hours.
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    Re: Fire Weather, a new approach

    Post by HansR » Wed 20 Nov 2019 9:08 am

    @phill: So, it seems the warning for NSW is just Very High (Yellow). Surprising to say the least because the weather does not really change in the context of wind, humidity and drought. Although it is not really a very strong wind, a 20 - 40 km/h wind is not calm either and for today (wednesday) a prediction of 8% humidity is very low. I still don't understand how you can live in air as dry as that. It must be uncomfortable. Also the fires are still there.

    I do not really understand the NSW official fire warning level. I stick with the high (catastrophic) warning level of pwsFWI. The fires are pretty close too, so wind may distribute the fire easily to Goonoowigal and the Tingha plateau if wind turns the right direction.

    Take care.
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    Re: Fire Weather, a new approach

    Post by Phil23 » Wed 20 Nov 2019 7:16 pm

    If you take a look at my wind graphs around 6 to 7pm yesterday you can see the wind pick up & swing to a predomantly Easterly.

    We could see a smoke front rolling in at 6:55 & it was over us in a matter of minutes.

    This photo was taken at 7:07pm, with the sun still at an altitude of 5.8°.
    The Sun could be viewed directly it was so dull.

    Capture.JPG

    Still much the same this morning.
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    Re: Fire Weather, a new approach

    Post by Phil23 » Wed 20 Nov 2019 8:47 pm

    Think this works.
    Visible Sattelite imagery from yesterday.
    Only past 18 hours is available.


    http://weather.inverellit.com/images/Ne ... ellite.mp4
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    Re: Fire Weather, a new approach

    Post by HansR » Wed 20 Nov 2019 9:33 pm

    That's quite an impressive image. Thanks!
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    Re: Fire Weather, a new approach

    Post by Phil23 » Thu 21 Nov 2019 12:13 am

    From my East facing WeatherCam.

    Not huge activity until 6:45.

    http://weather.inverellit.com/images/SmokeEast.mp4
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    Re: Fire Weather, a new approach

    Post by HansR » Thu 21 Nov 2019 5:38 am

    I am going to download and tweet them.
    Almost surreal passing of the smoke front. Thanks for sharing!
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    Re: Fire Weather, a new approach

    Post by Phil23 » Thu 21 Nov 2019 5:49 am

    Looks Like we have 3 new fires South of Bundarra.

    Approximately 50-60km away.

    Phil.
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    Re: Fire Weather, a new approach

    Post by HansR » Thu 21 Nov 2019 7:18 am

    But you have a rain prediction!
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    Re: Fire Weather, a new approach

    Post by Phil23 » Fri 22 Nov 2019 1:06 am

    Phil23 wrote:
    Thu 21 Nov 2019 5:49 am
    Looks Like we have 3 new fires South of Bundarra.
    https://www.inverelltimes.com.au/story/ ... m/?cs=1523
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    Re: Fire Weather, a new approach

    Post by HansR » Fri 22 Nov 2019 5:36 am

    Well, that is some story. This makes any action for raising awareness, measuring, predicting and fighting fire pretty useless.
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    Re: Fire Weather, a new approach

    Post by Phil23 » Mon 25 Nov 2019 1:26 am

    Phil23 wrote:
    Wed 20 Nov 2019 1:56 am
    Just to amuse myself I decided to pull some WeatherZone data into Excel.
    Been adding to this a couple of times a day just for curiosity.

    It runs for about a week now.

    Can post the raw data if it's of any interest for analysis purposes.

    Graph.JPG
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    Re: Fire Weather, a new approach

    Post by HansR » Mon 25 Nov 2019 3:00 am

    Interesting graph @Phil. It seems as if humidity is the single most important factor in fire susceptibility. That really is against the scientific evidence (which is not uniquely conclusive btw). In addition and as a result it seems as if at night the highly inflamable forests suddenly become much less dangerous: so, lets have a bbq at midnight :twisted: . The warning level is very low anyway, seen from the weather and the number of fires.

    For me it shows the weatherzone does not use the McArthur FWI, they use a simplified system with the same colouring code.

    I repeat: hourly FWI is contraproductive, it has no meaning.

    (You can attach the file for reference, that would be nice)
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    Re: Fire Weather, a new approach

    Post by HansR » Mon 25 Nov 2019 3:04 am

    Bw: happy for you to get some rain :D
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