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Latest Cumulus MX V3 release 3.28.6 (build 3283) - 21 March 2024
Cumulus MX V4 beta test release 4.0.0 (build 4019) - 03 April 2024
Legacy Cumulus 1 release 1.9.4 (build 1099) - 28 November 2014
(a patch is available for 1.9.4 build 1099 that extends the date range of drop-down menus to 2030)
Download the Software (Cumulus MX / Cumulus 1 and other related items) from the Wiki
Fire Weather, a new approach
-
- Posts: 884
- Joined: Sat 16 Jul 2016 11:59 pm
- Weather Station: Davis VP2+ & GW1000 (Standalone)
- Operating System: Win10 Pro / rPi Buster
- Location: Australia
Re: Fire Weather, a new approach
Just to keep the WeatherZone rating in perspective; it is basic all derived from the BOM (Bureau of Meteorology) & RFS (Rural Fire Service).
But it is for the entire Northern Tablelands Region which covers over 34,000 km².
That's a bit over 3/4's the size of the Netherlands, (41,000km²??).
Add to that the fact that the Geography within the region varies greatly.
We see an average Winter Max Temp of about 19°C here;
Armidale, which is a little over 100km away as by the Crow is a good 8 to 10° lower.
Phil.
But it is for the entire Northern Tablelands Region which covers over 34,000 km².
That's a bit over 3/4's the size of the Netherlands, (41,000km²??).
Add to that the fact that the Geography within the region varies greatly.
We see an average Winter Max Temp of about 19°C here;
Armidale, which is a little over 100km away as by the Crow is a good 8 to 10° lower.
Phil.
:Now: :Today/Yesterday:
Main Station Davis VP2+ Running Via Win10 Pro.
Secondary Stations, Ecowitt HP2551/GW1000 Via rPi 3 & 4 Running Buster GUI.
:Local Inverell Ecowitt Station: :Remote Ashford Ecowitt Station:
Main Station Davis VP2+ Running Via Win10 Pro.
Secondary Stations, Ecowitt HP2551/GW1000 Via rPi 3 & 4 Running Buster GUI.
:Local Inverell Ecowitt Station: :Remote Ashford Ecowitt Station:
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- Posts: 884
- Joined: Sat 16 Jul 2016 11:59 pm
- Weather Station: Davis VP2+ & GW1000 (Standalone)
- Operating System: Win10 Pro / rPi Buster
- Location: Australia
Re: Fire Weather, a new approach
Very Smoky here in the past 24 hours.
Red Sunrises & hazy days.
Mostly carried in from fires within a 150km radius.
Red Sunrises & hazy days.
Mostly carried in from fires within a 150km radius.
:Now: :Today/Yesterday:
Main Station Davis VP2+ Running Via Win10 Pro.
Secondary Stations, Ecowitt HP2551/GW1000 Via rPi 3 & 4 Running Buster GUI.
:Local Inverell Ecowitt Station: :Remote Ashford Ecowitt Station:
Main Station Davis VP2+ Running Via Win10 Pro.
Secondary Stations, Ecowitt HP2551/GW1000 Via rPi 3 & 4 Running Buster GUI.
:Local Inverell Ecowitt Station: :Remote Ashford Ecowitt Station:
- HansR
- Posts: 5957
- Joined: Sat 20 Oct 2012 6:53 am
- Weather Station: GW1100 (WS80/WH40)
- Operating System: Raspberry OS/Bookworm
- Location: Wagenborgen (NL)
- Contact:
Re: Fire Weather, a new approach
The first two fires are less than 100 km away from you, I measured it from the Fires Near Me page. It is interesting the WeatherZone (yes, I take your remark into account ) still only has a blue (high) warning. We're now levels apart.
I think that can be explained, because the Australian (McArthur) FWI has in it the presence and typology of the forest/vegetation. My model does not, it is purely meteorological. That is an interesting display of what is going on! There is not so much forest around you meaning the danger level remains low? That would be an interesting question to the authorities. Actually, I asked WeatherZone for comment, pointing them to your site.
Cheers, Hans
Hans
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4017+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4017+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
-
- Posts: 884
- Joined: Sat 16 Jul 2016 11:59 pm
- Weather Station: Davis VP2+ & GW1000 (Standalone)
- Operating System: Win10 Pro / rPi Buster
- Location: Australia
Re: Fire Weather, a new approach
I think the biggest variation is due to the effect that the WeatherZone index covers such a vast area.
I've travelled the entire local area & really the geography can be at all extremes.
Inverell, Glen Innes, & Armidale for example are entirely different in their vegetation & climatic conditions,
but the official index covers all of those areas.
Phil.
I've travelled the entire local area & really the geography can be at all extremes.
Inverell, Glen Innes, & Armidale for example are entirely different in their vegetation & climatic conditions,
but the official index covers all of those areas.
Phil.
:Now: :Today/Yesterday:
Main Station Davis VP2+ Running Via Win10 Pro.
Secondary Stations, Ecowitt HP2551/GW1000 Via rPi 3 & 4 Running Buster GUI.
:Local Inverell Ecowitt Station: :Remote Ashford Ecowitt Station:
Main Station Davis VP2+ Running Via Win10 Pro.
Secondary Stations, Ecowitt HP2551/GW1000 Via rPi 3 & 4 Running Buster GUI.
:Local Inverell Ecowitt Station: :Remote Ashford Ecowitt Station:
- HansR
- Posts: 5957
- Joined: Sat 20 Oct 2012 6:53 am
- Weather Station: GW1100 (WS80/WH40)
- Operating System: Raspberry OS/Bookworm
- Location: Wagenborgen (NL)
- Contact:
Re: Fire Weather, a new approach
Please note: in Phil's Backyard there is the first - five days ahead - prediction for a purple (Catastrophic) phase. The warning for today is Orange and that is completely in line with the Weatherzone warning (which I cannot catch with the date in one small image). Inverell is at the moment the only station in the real fire season although at Sangonera (Spain, similar climate), there is a prediction for a longer yellow warning period. That seems extraordinary for the season. Despite the rains which fell recently elsewhere in NSW, in Inverell it was minimal and the drought continues. The catastrophic warning is in line with those observations.
Basically, the catastrophic level means that there is no more water to evaporate, everything is dry as dry can get and it needs just a spark (or a lightning) to ignite. A warning is not fire yet, let's hope it does not ignite.
All other stations are actually on green (low) warning level, outside the fire season.
If we are talking behavioural testing, I would say pwsFWI stands the test remarkably well looking at the weather conditions and the official warning levels.
If we look at the Fires near me page, we see that the nearest fire to Inverell is 35 km and that it is 'Out Of Control'. This is well within the range of Phil's weatherstation and I regard this as a confirmation of the pwsFWI validity.
It seems the season now really has started (see the other two images). Wishing well to all in the region!
Basically, the catastrophic level means that there is no more water to evaporate, everything is dry as dry can get and it needs just a spark (or a lightning) to ignite. A warning is not fire yet, let's hope it does not ignite.
All other stations are actually on green (low) warning level, outside the fire season.
If we are talking behavioural testing, I would say pwsFWI stands the test remarkably well looking at the weather conditions and the official warning levels.
If we look at the Fires near me page, we see that the nearest fire to Inverell is 35 km and that it is 'Out Of Control'. This is well within the range of Phil's weatherstation and I regard this as a confirmation of the pwsFWI validity.
It seems the season now really has started (see the other two images). Wishing well to all in the region!
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Hans
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4017+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4017+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
- beteljuice
- Posts: 3292
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- Weather Station: None !
- Operating System: W10 - Threadripper 16core, etc
- Location: Dudley, West Midlands, UK
Re: Fire Weather, a new approach
@Hans
The key pointer is the last forecast colour (was it flashing ?) and not white or current level.
Is this intentional ?
The key pointer is the last forecast colour (was it flashing ?) and not white or current level.
Is this intentional ?
......................Imagine, what you will KNOW tomorrow !
- HansR
- Posts: 5957
- Joined: Sat 20 Oct 2012 6:53 am
- Weather Station: GW1100 (WS80/WH40)
- Operating System: Raspberry OS/Bookworm
- Location: Wagenborgen (NL)
- Contact:
Re: Fire Weather, a new approach
@beteljuice: No not intentional. Seen it, fixed it but not released yet.
Thnx
Thnx
Hans
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4017+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4017+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
- HansR
- Posts: 5957
- Joined: Sat 20 Oct 2012 6:53 am
- Weather Station: GW1100 (WS80/WH40)
- Operating System: Raspberry OS/Bookworm
- Location: Wagenborgen (NL)
- Contact:
Re: Fire Weather, a new approach
Note that this is the first day with a catastrophic warning level at Inverell (Phil's Backyard) and on that day, 20 minutes after I woke up and had a view at the fires-near-me site, I saw that a fire had broke out at Gwydir Hwy, about 4 km west of Phil's Backyard. Hope it does not spread but with NW winds that is very well possible.
I will not supply a news real and daily updates on the NSW fires here, but I must mention, that the prediction of the purple warning level coincides exactly with the other warning systems (Note that the local warning level of Weatherzone is still 'only' red). And despite the misery and dangers involved, I must say that the fires in the neighbourhood of Inverell, come as a programmers success. I am happy about that. Even when realising that pwsFWI represents a warning level and not a fire occurrence, there must be a correlation between fire occurrence and warning level. I would say that has been firmly established now (or at least strongly indicated).
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl/wp/tag/pwsfwi/
I will not supply a news real and daily updates on the NSW fires here, but I must mention, that the prediction of the purple warning level coincides exactly with the other warning systems (Note that the local warning level of Weatherzone is still 'only' red). And despite the misery and dangers involved, I must say that the fires in the neighbourhood of Inverell, come as a programmers success. I am happy about that. Even when realising that pwsFWI represents a warning level and not a fire occurrence, there must be a correlation between fire occurrence and warning level. I would say that has been firmly established now (or at least strongly indicated).
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl/wp/tag/pwsfwi/
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Hans
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4017+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4017+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
-
- Posts: 884
- Joined: Sat 16 Jul 2016 11:59 pm
- Weather Station: Davis VP2+ & GW1000 (Standalone)
- Operating System: Win10 Pro / rPi Buster
- Location: Australia
Re: Fire Weather, a new approach
Know all about that one...…
Just up the road 100's of metres from my son's boss's place.
RFS turned up & put it out.
Found 3 blokes with beers sitting around a tree they were burning in a front yard.
Idiot factor???
:Now: :Today/Yesterday:
Main Station Davis VP2+ Running Via Win10 Pro.
Secondary Stations, Ecowitt HP2551/GW1000 Via rPi 3 & 4 Running Buster GUI.
:Local Inverell Ecowitt Station: :Remote Ashford Ecowitt Station:
Main Station Davis VP2+ Running Via Win10 Pro.
Secondary Stations, Ecowitt HP2551/GW1000 Via rPi 3 & 4 Running Buster GUI.
:Local Inverell Ecowitt Station: :Remote Ashford Ecowitt Station:
- HansR
- Posts: 5957
- Joined: Sat 20 Oct 2012 6:53 am
- Weather Station: GW1100 (WS80/WH40)
- Operating System: Raspberry OS/Bookworm
- Location: Wagenborgen (NL)
- Contact:
Re: Fire Weather, a new approach
@phil: Yes the idiot factor. In my experience the human factor is the biggest factor as cause of fire. Intentionally or not. Carelessness.
Therefore awareness about the forest, weather conditions and damage to the environment is important but even then...
Hope the situation will get better soon.
Therefore awareness about the forest, weather conditions and damage to the environment is important but even then...
Hope the situation will get better soon.
Hans
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4017+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4017+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
-
- Posts: 884
- Joined: Sat 16 Jul 2016 11:59 pm
- Weather Station: Davis VP2+ & GW1000 (Standalone)
- Operating System: Win10 Pro / rPi Buster
- Location: Australia
Re: Fire Weather, a new approach
It's an unusual feeling sitting up here, playing the waiting game.
We expect a fire or two each year & it's rare when they don't happen.
Location is the thing, and we have a few places nearby that are simply powder kegs, just waiting to go.
Clive state forest near the airport partial went back in January.
It will probably go again, but the one that concerns me the most is Gooniwigal, which is much closer to town.
Smells of smoke here this morning, even though most of the current fires are quite a distance away.
Phil.
We expect a fire or two each year & it's rare when they don't happen.
Location is the thing, and we have a few places nearby that are simply powder kegs, just waiting to go.
Clive state forest near the airport partial went back in January.
It will probably go again, but the one that concerns me the most is Gooniwigal, which is much closer to town.
Smells of smoke here this morning, even though most of the current fires are quite a distance away.
Phil.
:Now: :Today/Yesterday:
Main Station Davis VP2+ Running Via Win10 Pro.
Secondary Stations, Ecowitt HP2551/GW1000 Via rPi 3 & 4 Running Buster GUI.
:Local Inverell Ecowitt Station: :Remote Ashford Ecowitt Station:
Main Station Davis VP2+ Running Via Win10 Pro.
Secondary Stations, Ecowitt HP2551/GW1000 Via rPi 3 & 4 Running Buster GUI.
:Local Inverell Ecowitt Station: :Remote Ashford Ecowitt Station:
- HansR
- Posts: 5957
- Joined: Sat 20 Oct 2012 6:53 am
- Weather Station: GW1100 (WS80/WH40)
- Operating System: Raspberry OS/Bookworm
- Location: Wagenborgen (NL)
- Contact:
Re: Fire Weather, a new approach
There is some very dry and hot weather coming up so be careful what you wish for. The good thing is that if there is no fire around your place, people apparently are careful in and around the prairies and forests. Important, because nature knows few ignition sources. Most fires are started by humans, simply accidental mostly, sometimes because they like fire or like to see the fire brigade in action.
In France, here I lived, they caught an arsonist: a man in his 50's, a vineyard owner, married, 4 children, village counsilor. The guy had everything, but set forests on fire because he liked the action and the planes. He got arrested and lost everything. Understanding man when it is about fire is hard.
Good luck next week, wind and very low humidity is the cause of catastrophic warning level.
Hope your water pump works.
Cheers Hans
Hans
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4017+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4017+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
-
- Posts: 884
- Joined: Sat 16 Jul 2016 11:59 pm
- Weather Station: Davis VP2+ & GW1000 (Standalone)
- Operating System: Win10 Pro / rPi Buster
- Location: Australia
Re: Fire Weather, a new approach
Yes,
Just lightning & broken glass (from humans), but it can still be present for years & then de disturbed & uncovered.
Lightning....
I mentioned Gooniwigal; but then there's the Old Bundarra Rd area.
That area has huge lightning attraction potential due to the geology & high presence of magnetite in the soil in the area.
I used to refer to it as "Dead Modem Alley" in the dial-up days, as I was guaranteed to me replacing dozens of modems out there during the storm seasons
Had a similar situation here about 11 years ago. A volunteer fire fighter.In France, here I lived, they caught an arsonist: a man in his 50's, a vineyard owner, married, 4 children, village counsilor.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/volunte ... -68xv.html
Not good at all.
Phil.
:Now: :Today/Yesterday:
Main Station Davis VP2+ Running Via Win10 Pro.
Secondary Stations, Ecowitt HP2551/GW1000 Via rPi 3 & 4 Running Buster GUI.
:Local Inverell Ecowitt Station: :Remote Ashford Ecowitt Station:
Main Station Davis VP2+ Running Via Win10 Pro.
Secondary Stations, Ecowitt HP2551/GW1000 Via rPi 3 & 4 Running Buster GUI.
:Local Inverell Ecowitt Station: :Remote Ashford Ecowitt Station:
- HansR
- Posts: 5957
- Joined: Sat 20 Oct 2012 6:53 am
- Weather Station: GW1100 (WS80/WH40)
- Operating System: Raspberry OS/Bookworm
- Location: Wagenborgen (NL)
- Contact:
Re: Fire Weather, a new approach
It's the same everywhere.
Hans
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4017+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
https://meteo-wagenborgen.nl
CMX build 4017+ ● RPi 3B+ ● Raspbian Linux 6.1.21-v7+ armv7l ● dotnet 8.0.3
-
- Posts: 884
- Joined: Sat 16 Jul 2016 11:59 pm
- Weather Station: Davis VP2+ & GW1000 (Standalone)
- Operating System: Win10 Pro / rPi Buster
- Location: Australia
Re: Fire Weather, a new approach
Just after Sunrise,
Looking East from one of my Weather Cams.
Looking East from one of my Weather Cams.
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:Now: :Today/Yesterday:
Main Station Davis VP2+ Running Via Win10 Pro.
Secondary Stations, Ecowitt HP2551/GW1000 Via rPi 3 & 4 Running Buster GUI.
:Local Inverell Ecowitt Station: :Remote Ashford Ecowitt Station:
Main Station Davis VP2+ Running Via Win10 Pro.
Secondary Stations, Ecowitt HP2551/GW1000 Via rPi 3 & 4 Running Buster GUI.
:Local Inverell Ecowitt Station: :Remote Ashford Ecowitt Station: