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2018 - An exceptional (ongoing) summer for the UK

Talk about the weather
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RayProudfoot
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2018 - An exceptional (ongoing) summer for the UK

Post by RayProudfoot » Sat 21 Jul 2018 5:11 pm

The summer of 2018 in the UK is now being compared to that of 1976 which for those of a certain age represents the 'ultimate' summer.

I consider a reasonable summer's day to be one where the temp reaches the magical 70F mark. That's 21C.

Here is a query from my Access database showing the count of 21C days by year (vertical) and month (horizontal). Even with over two months to go before a max of 21C is unlikely 2018 looks to be a record breaker. I'm sure those of you with Cumulus MX and SQL skills can produce better looking displays. ;)
DaysOver21C.png
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Cheers,
Ray, Cheshire.

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Mapantz
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Re: 2018 - An exceptional (ongoing) summer for the UK

Post by Mapantz » Sat 21 Jul 2018 6:09 pm

It shouldn't be compared to 1976 yet. If August has average temps, Summer 2018 will only just make it in to the top 10. If sunshine hours in August are around average, it will just make it in to the top 5 of sunniest Summer's on record. If rainfall in August turns out to be average, it might not make it in to the top 10 of driest Summer's.

Although the heat will continue to build (and humidity) this coming week, especially in the SE, where 35°C is possible.. August is starting to show some signs of a breakdown.
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RayProudfoot
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Re: 2018 - An exceptional (ongoing) summer for the UK

Post by RayProudfoot » Sat 21 Jul 2018 7:28 pm

I wasn't making a direct comparison. Some parts of the media are doing that. I'd be interested to see the source of your data you use for comparisons.

My solar panels have smashed records for May, June and almost certainly, July. My June average is 3.3C above average and July 3.5C above average. Rainfall records for May, June and July are 50%, 8% and 34% of average.

Any weather predictions more than 7 days ahead are very unreliable such is the nature of the atmosphere. After all, did anyone forecast such a long settled period back in late April before the dry and sunny spell started on the 5th?

My chart above is simply for temperature but rainfall is also very low and this area will have a hosepipe ban starting in 2 weeks. Given our water comes from the Lake District that speaks volumes.

It would be odd indeed if the weather broke down completely in the next couple of weeks but I don't entirely rule it out. Perhaps they should employ a Minister of Drought. Within a couple of weeks of doing that in 1976 the heavens opened. :D
Cheers,
Ray, Cheshire.

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Mapantz
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Re: 2018 - An exceptional (ongoing) summer for the UK

Post by Mapantz » Sat 21 Jul 2018 9:30 pm

It wasn't aimed at you, Ray. I apologise if that's how it came across. It was the media I meant, as I have been reading/hearing it too.

The stats I mentioned came directly from the Met Office.

Regards to predicting the weather; Locally, that's very difficult, and for the British Isles themselves. However, teleconnections can give some good indications of weather patterns across the world, and what influence they may have up and downstream. Slow and evolving patterns across the Pacific herald a change downstream.. Blocking certainly still looks on the cards around Scandinavia, but Atlantic low pressure may exert a stronger push on it as we get in to August, but it's not certain how stubborn the block will be. A likely scenario is to develop a Northwest/Southeast split in the weather - More unsettled and cooler towards the Northwest, the best of the weather hanging on in the South and East, with possible hot spells still occurring.

It's certainly a Summer to remember, but it would take a special set of circumstances to keep things going like this through August as well. (I hope it does) but we shall see! :D
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RayProudfoot
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Re: 2018 - An exceptional (ongoing) summer for the UK

Post by RayProudfoot » Sat 21 Jul 2018 10:21 pm

Thanks for clearing that up Mapantz. It did appear out of character.

Most of our weather is driven by the jet stream and for a couple of months now that has taken an unusual turn with severe kinks over SW Europe causing poor weather in that part of the world back in May when the sun just kept shining in the U.K.

It all seems to have started with the SSW responsible for “the beast from the east”. Severe weather at the end of Feb and briefly in March followed by a wet April and then a blocking high that remained unchanged for most of the next two months.

I cannot see any pattern in that except chaos. I agree that the SE will probably enjoy the better weather at the expense of the NW but that is to be expected.

This part of the world enjoyed clear skies day after day in early May onwards when the winds were predominantly from an easterly direction as they were for Feb, March, April and May. Just look at my wind stats to confirm an extremely unusual sequence. http://www.cheadlehulmeweather.co.uk/NOAA.php?yr=2018

It will all end at some point but anyone who accurately predicts it could become rich if he’s a betting man. :D
Cheers,
Ray, Cheshire.

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dc1500
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Re: 2018 - An exceptional (ongoing) summer for the UK

Post by dc1500 » Tue 23 Oct 2018 9:09 am

For the S.E and specifically Essex, in many ways it has been a better summer than 1976, lasting longer. I moved into this house in 1976 and have good memories of the near constant sun and heat. But it broke down badly at the end of August beginning of September (when I went on holiday!) and we had a very wet Autumn. That year was also, unlike this year, preceded by a dry Autumn and winter which made the drought aspect worse. Although the pure summer period may not have been quite up to '76 standards (August was patchy) the fact that September and October have been very dry and warm this year adds to its longevity. People in the North and West will be saying "other weather types are available"!
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ConligWX
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Re: 2018 - An exceptional (ongoing) summer for the UK

Post by ConligWX » Tue 23 Oct 2018 5:47 pm

Ray are these your figures from 2018 and 1976? or a mixture of various weather stations in one location?
Regards Simon

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RayProudfoot
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Re: 2018 - An exceptional (ongoing) summer for the UK

Post by RayProudfoot » Tue 23 Oct 2018 6:25 pm

Toxic17 wrote:Ray are these your figures from 2018 and 1976? or a mixture of various weather stations in one location?
If you're referring to the diagram in my first post that relates to my Davis VP2 records since 2009. A count of days when the max hit or exceeded 21C.

It needs updating actually as we've had 21C even well into October. Here's the final count. First time I've had 7 months where it's hit 21C.
21C days in 2018.png
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Cheers,
Ray, Cheshire.

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